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07/22/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As Canada prepares to host the 2010 IBAF World Junior Baseball Championship in Thunder Bay, Ont., beginning Friday, here's a closer look at its final 20-player roster.
It all starts behind the plate.
Canada's top player, Kellin Deglan, will be looked to as the leader of a team that has won the event just once in 1991.
The Langley, British Columbia native is the heart and soul of the club and after the 2010 MLB Draft, the face of it too. The 18-year-old catcher caught the attention of an entire country when the Texas Rangers selected him 22nd overall this past June.
Deglan is the big left-handed bat that head coach Greg Hamilton will rely on in the middle of the order. However, Deglan comes with more than just a bat and keen baseball sense. As one player mentioned, "You can't compete with his work ethic."
Deglan's leadership will play a large factor in his team's ability to channel the home crowd hysteria into victories.
INFIELD
Canada is also strong in the middle infield, anchored by shortstop Brandon Dailey, from Brantford, Ont.
Standing in at 5'10", 170-pounds, Dailey isn't the most imposing player physically, but nonetheless a solid athlete with a multi-use skill set.
Described by the coaching staff as a leader on the team, Dailey should provide consistent contact at the top of the order (likely second) given his aggressive approach at the plate and tendency to square up on pitches. His ability to run and hit for average are both amplified when you consider his exceptional defensive talents, behind a strong infield arm and soft hands.
Fresh off an exhibition tour that saw the Junior National Team play 11 games in 15 days, there's still uncertainty as to how the middle infield will fill out.
One thing they'll have is depth - soon-to-be 17-year-old Justin Atkinson provides the team with a high-ceiling player that projects to be a top-level talent. At 6'1", Atkinson has the frame and athleticism to be a special player but it remains to be seen what type of impact the youngster will make during the tournament.
Also competing for playing time at second base will be Raymond, Alberta native Jimmy Ralph. The 17-year-old infielder is a solid defender with a simple, straight stroke that will keep defenses on their toes.
One of the keys to Canada's success in the tournament will be the play of its corner infielders. The corner infield of third baseman Jalen Harris (Toronto) and first baseman Jordan Boston (Brampton) is big on size and high on potential.
Both players are physically gifted, especially Harris (6'2", 210), who is one of the top athletes on the roster. His defense should be solid, as he plays with a strong sense of composure and has good hands. If Harris can get himself into a groove at the plate, he has the potential to make an impact in the tournament.
OUTFIELD
Canada looks to be solid in the outfield, headlined by three players selected in the MLB Draft - Rowan Wick (Milwaukee, 18th round), Dalton Pompey and Philip Diedrick (Toronto, 16th and 45th round, respectively).
Pompey is a multi-talented player, evidenced by the Jays' decision to sign the Mississauga, Ontario native almost immediately following the draft.
A switch-hitter with the ability to spray the ball to both sides of the field, Pompey will give Hamilton and his coaching staff plenty of flexibility with the roster. Pompey's speed and athleticism are assets both in the field and on the basepaths, and he figures to find himself at the top of the order.
Both Diedrick (Ajax, Ont.) and Wick will be relied upon, along with Deglan, to provide the power in the lineup. This will most likely be Canada's greatest weakness, but they overshadow it by playing a brand of ball that includes solid contact and line drive hitting.
The two outfielders both have good size and possess the strength to hit the ball out of the park. Wick's ability to spell Deglan behind the plate and a very strong arm make the North Vancouver native a key player in Canada's run for a medal.
PITCHING
Here's where Canada's hopes for success truly lie.
With six of the 11 players drafted by major league teams coming from the mound, Team Canada will be blending a strong mix of veteran leadership with high- ceiling talent.
Lead by Evan Grills, who signed with the Houston Astros after being taken in the 10th round, the Canadian staff features three left-handers and two ace- quality arms.
Grills, in his fourth year with the national team and competing in his second world championship, is an imposing 6'5", 205-pound lefty with strong command of his breaking ball and changeup. He won't overpower you on the mound but the Whitby native knows how to pitch, fading and sinking his fastball in and out to keep hitters off balance.
One of the youngest players to ever play for the national team (at age 14), the competitor in Grills should rise to the occasion and he'll look to seize the moment in his final appearance with the Juniors.
The other top-flight arm - keeping in mind, the staff itself is strong top to bottom - is Windsor native Joel Pierce.
Pierce is a big strong 17-year-old who has been labeled by scouts as a highly promising talent. The 6'4" right-hander has a heavy sinker to go with a live fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and a good changeup. Pierce also has an intimidating presence on the mound, something the Canadians will look to use against strong teams such as South Korea and the United States.
Although it hasn't been officially announced, the thought is that Hamilton will go with Brian Bardis (St. Constant, Que.) to close games. Given the versatility Hamilton has with lefties and righties in the rotation, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the team close games by committee, depending on matchups.
Bardis isn't your typical closer, in that he's a bit undersized to be classified as a "power pitcher", but has exceptional poise and makeup on the mound and should be able to use his confidence to pitch effectively in tight games.
While Canada will be in tough against strong opposition, it's a squad heavy on leadership, defense, and quality pitching. It's a combination that often wins games.
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Verlander (12-5) allo
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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